De Ketelaere without a goal: it's where he plays

Eight Serie A games in, De Ketelaere is still waiting for his first goal. His finishing barely explains it: he simply isn't getting the chances any more. As a right winger he hardly touches the ball in the box. As a number 10, he does.

Goals and expected goals per 90 minutes, league

He plays more than ever, and scores less than ever

Minutes are not the problem. De Ketelaere has started seven of eight league games this season and averages 77 minutes, more than under Gasperini (61) and last season (74). The problem is what happens in those minutes. At Club Brugge he got 0.34 expected goals per 90, last season at Atalanta 0.18, now 0.09. It halves every season.

His last club goal came on 10 January, a header from a set piece against Torino. Since then he has played 26 games in Serie A and Europe, around 1,860 minutes, without scoring.

Give anyone these ten chances and half the time they stay on zero

De Ketelaere has shot ten times in Serie A this season, worth 0.64 expected goals in total. Even a striker who finishes exactly at the average fails to score from those ten shots 51% of the time. There is no run of missed big chances: his best chance was a 0.16 xG shot against Frosinone, and it was blocked.

What has changed is the quality of his shots. At Brugge his average shot was worth 0.17 xG, last season 0.10, now 0.06. Three of his ten attempts were headers from set pieces, four were blocked, one was on target. Last season he scored 3 from 4.6 expected goals: a small shortfall, but not the heart of the story.

His shots, one dot per shot

Brugge 21/22

Atalanta 25/26

Atalanta 26/27

From second striker to the touchline

At Brugge De Ketelaere played everywhere: striker, behind the striker, left and right. Under Gasperini, Jurić and Palladino he was the right-sided of the two attackers behind the striker in a 3-4-2-1. He received a lot in the right channel, but from there he moved inside and into the box, because the wing-back held the width. Sarri plays 4-3-3, and in that system the right winger holds the width himself. In five of his seven Serie A starts, De Ketelaere was that right winger.

You see the result in the box. At Brugge he received the ball there three times per 90 minutes, last season almost twice, as Sarri's right winger 0.6 times. In the two league games as a number 10 (Venezia and Frosinone) it was 4.5 times. That is only 140 minutes, but the difference is a factor of seven.

2026/27 as right winger

2026/27 as number 10

Ball receptions per 90 minutes in the final third, by zone. The box is highlighted separately.

Last season: central, facing goal

Now: as a right winger on the touchline

He still gets near goal. On Atalanta's open-play shots he is in the box as often as last season, around six times in ten. But he is rarely the one who gets the ball there: he played the cross, or he is holding the far post. In this team, the finisher is the striker.

The criticism is half right: less, but still among the best

Last season De Ketelaere was one of the best creators in Serie A. Of 140 attackers with at least 900 minutes, he played the fourth most passes that led to a shot, and the chances he created were worth the third most in total (0.38 expected assists per 90).

This season that drops: 1.75 shot assists per 90 against 2.42, and 0.28 expected assists against 0.38. That is a fall of about a quarter. But he is still seventh of 99 attackers in expected assists. What changes is where those passes come from: as a right winger they are crosses from the byline, as a number 10 through balls through the middle. The latter are worth far more: against Frosinone alone he created 1.03 expected assists, more than in his five games as a right winger combined (0.64).

Rank among Serie A attackers

Game by game this season: what he created and what he got

Against Frosinone he stood where the chances are

Against Frosinone Sarri played him behind the striker in a 4-2-3-1. In 79 minutes De Ketelaere received the ball in the box eight times, shot six times and set up the 1-1. That is more than in his five games as a right winger combined. Same picture in the Conference League against Pafos, also as a 10: four shots, five shot assists and an assist.

As a 10: receiving between the lines, assist

As a 10: arriving in the box

Atalanta themselves create far less too

De Ketelaere is not alone. Last season Atalanta were third in Serie A for expected goals (1.78 per game). After nine rounds under Sarri it is 1.07, fifteenth of twenty. A team searching for automatisms in a new system creates fewer chances, and the fewest of those fall to the right winger.

De Ketelaere's share of his team's expected goals has dropped from 9% to 6%. In this system the box belongs to the striker: Krstović receives there 4.6 times per 90 minutes and gets 0.66 expected goals per 90, seven times as much as De Ketelaere.

Atalanta, expected goals per game, and De Ketelaere's share

The drought is a role problem, not a form problem

His finishing is not the cause

From the ten shots he got, an average finisher stays on zero half the time. No big chances were missed.

His position is

As a right winger in Sarri’s 4-3-3 he gets the ball in the box 0.6 times per 90. As a number 10 it was 4.5 times. At Brugge and last season he played more centrally and got more shots.

He still creates

Less than last season, but still seventh of 99 Serie A attackers in expected assists. Centrally, his passes are worth the most.

The team has to follow

Atalanta have dropped from third to fifteenth in chances created. A right winger on the touchline is the first casualty of a team that creates less.

MyGamePlan · 27 October 2026 · League games up to and including Atalanta-Frosinone (25 October). Animations are real positions from the games, one frame per second.